Safaricom FY25 Results Explained: M-PESA Growth Solid, Ethiopia Losses Deepen Despite Expansion

Safaricom has announced its financial results for the full year ending March 31, 2025. The telco-turned-tech company reported total revenue of KES 388.7 billion – crossing the $3 billion mark for the first time in its history. This growth was largely driven by its Kenyan business, especially the continued strength of M-PESA and mobile data services.

However, while the company saw success at home, its Ethiopian subsidiary, still in its early stages, dragged down group profits with a significant loss, affected heavily by currency depreciation and high initial costs.

Group Financial Overview

Safaricom Group includes operations in Kenya, Ethiopia, and several associated ventures. The FY25 results show strong overall growth:

• Total revenue: KES 388.7 billion (↑ 11.2% YoY)
• Service revenue: KES 371.4 billion (↑ 10.8% YoY)
• Net income (Group): KES 69.8 billion (↑ 10.8%)
• EBIT (Group): KES 104.1 billion (↑ 29.5%)
• Operating Free Cash Flow (Kenya): KES 148.9 billion (↑ 15.8%)

This top-line performance reflects a maturing business in Kenya and an expanding footprint in Ethiopia – though the latter remains a heavy investment zone.

Kenya Segment: Growth Across All Services

Safaricom’s core Kenyan business remains the primary engine for revenue and profit.

M-PESA: Still the Crown Jewel

M-PESA continues to lead as Safaricom’s biggest revenue stream, contributing KES 161.1 billion, or 44.2% of Kenyan service revenue.

Some important metrics:

• Transaction volume: 37.2 billion transactions (↑ 29.5%)
• Transaction value: KES 38.3 trillion (↑ 1.6%)
• Active customers: 35.82 million (↑ 10.5%)

Safaricom’s strategy to expand M-PESA beyond person-to-person (P2P) transfers continues to pay off. The ecosystem now includes:

• Business payments like Lipa na M-PESA and Pochi la Biashara
• Credit and lending products like Fuliza, KCB M-PESA, and M-Shwari
• Insurance, savings, and global payments

Key highlights:

• Fuliza disbursements: KES 981.6 billion, with repayments exceeding disbursals
• Pochi tills: 1.15 million (↑ 81.7%)
• M-PESA Visa active users: 195,000 (↑ 36.1%), though usage value dropped by 40%

M-PESA is not only growing in usage but also deepening in relevance to everyday life – especially for SMEs, merchants, and digital financial inclusion.

Mobile Data: Rising Usage Drives Revenue

Mobile data was the second fastest growing segment in Kenya:

• Revenue: KES 72.9 billion (↑ 15.2%)
• Active users: 30.69 million (↑ 11.2%)
• Users consuming >1GB: 11.86 million (↑ 18.1%)
• Average data usage: 4.22GB per subscriber

Smartphone and 4G device penetration increased significantly:

• Smartphones: 27.4 million (↑ 19.4%)
• 4G devices: 22.3 million (↑ 32.4%)
• 5G devices: 1.05 million (↑ 57.0%)

Safaricom’s data revenue growth has been helped by bundling, better device availability, and affordability.

Voice and Messaging: Still Holding Up

Contrary to global trends of voice service decline, Safaricom managed to grow voice revenue:

• Voice revenue: KES 80.8 billion (↑ 1.6%)
• Messaging revenue: KES 12.5 billion (↑ 1.6%)

Despite an 11.4% drop in the per-minute rate, total minutes of use and subscriber numbers rose – pointing to effective pricing strategies.

Fixed Services: Fibre and Enterprise Growth

Safaricom’s fibre and enterprise segment also grew:

• FTTH home customers: 301,451 (↑ 21.3%)
• Homes passed: 694,290
• Fixed enterprise customers: 69,874 (↑ 17.5%)
• Broadband market share: 36.1% as of December 2024

This growth reflects sustained investment in fibre infrastructure and increasing demand for home internet.

Ethiopia: High Growth, High Losses

Safaricom’s expansion into Ethiopia is its biggest bet – and its biggest financial challenge.

Revenue Growth But Heavy Losses

• Service revenue: KES 7.55 billion (↑ 35.3%)
• Active users (90-day): 8.84 million (↑ >100%)
• M-PESA users: 2.4 million
• M-PESA revenue: KES 12.5 million only

However, the losses are substantial:

• Net loss: KES 49.77 billion
• EBIT: Negative KES 54.16 billion
• Operating costs: KES 36.2 billion (↑ 52% YoY)
• Forex losses: KES 21.8 billion

These losses are largely due to:

• Hyperinflation adjustments (IAS 29)
• 117% depreciation of the Ethiopian Birr
• Heavy initial costs for network, staff, and compliance

M-PESA in Ethiopia: Early Signs of Use

Since launching in August 2023:

• Transaction value: KES 20.6 billion
• Volume: 164.6 million
• Revenue: Just KES 12.5 million

Although usage is rising, revenue remains negligible due to early-stage rollout and a nascent fintech environment.

Dividends and Cash Flow

Despite Ethiopian losses, Safaricom has proposed maintaining its dividend payout:

• Final dividend: KES 0.65 per share
• Total dividend for FY25: KES 1.20 per share (same as FY24)
• Payout amount: KES 48.08 billion

This shows the company’s confidence in its cash generation from Kenya, even as it absorbs losses from Ethiopia.

FY26 Guidance: What Safaricom Expects Next

Safaricom has provided forward-looking guidance:

• Group EBIT: KES 144–150 billion
• Kenya EBIT: KES 170–173 billion
• Ethiopia EBIT loss: KES 23–26 billion
• CAPEX (Group): KES 72–78 billion

The company continues to invest heavily in digital platforms and fintech ecosystems in both countries.

Final Thoughts

Safaricom’s FY25 performance reinforces its dominance in Kenya and its ambitions beyond borders. In Kenya, M-PESA continues to evolve into a full-fledged fintech ecosystem, while mobile data and broadband keep expanding.

However, Ethiopia remains both a major opportunity and a financial sinkhole – with currency challenges, high costs, and early-stage revenue making it difficult to break even soon.

The next few years will test Safaricom’s ability to balance maturity in Kenya with risk in Ethiopia, all while holding onto its bigger goal: becoming Africa’s most impactful technology company by 2030.